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Heading to Walt Disney World from the UK this summer? If you are and you’ve had a little bit of a niggle in the back of your mind about travelling during hurricane season there’s good news. NOAA, the US (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) have released there predictions for the 2026 hurricane season. They predict a 55% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, meaning there’s less chance of holiday disruption because of a hurricane.
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Magic in a Minute: The 2026 Hurricane Outlook for UK Travellers
As a UK visitor to Orlando the threat of a hurricane during your holiday isn’t something you really think about, even if you knowingly book during hurricane season which runs from the 1st June until 30th November every year. In the US, NOAA provide an outlook and forecast for the season. This year, for the first time in over 10 years, they are predicting a “below-normal” season.
Here is what this means for your Disney World holiday if you just want the whole story in a minute:
Hurricane season forecast | 55% chance it’s “below-normal”: this means fewer bigger storms so less chance of disruption |
|---|---|
Why is 2026 below-normal hurricane season? | It’s to do with changes to El Niño in the Atlantic this year making it harder for hurricanes to form |
How does this effect a holiday to Orlando? | With a lower statistical risk of a big storm there is less likely to be weather disruption causing the parks to shut, flight delays, and other unwanted disruptions to a holiday. |
Do you still need travel insurance? | Don’t skip the travel insurance no matter the forecast, always make sure you have comprehensive travel insurance for a Florida holiday from the UK |
What exactly are NOAA predicting?
NOAA make predictions using complex weather models, that offer insights into how the conditions in the Atlantic are likely to change and progress during the hurricane season. From this they make predictions about what the hurricane season is going to be like. In 2026, NOAA’s hurricane predictions are:
55% chance of a below-normal season
35% chance of a normal season
10% chance of an above-normal season
The 55% chance of a below-normal season means that in the Atlantic basin area, which is where Florida lies, NOAA are expecting 8 -14 named storms where winds will gust above 39mph. Of the 8-14 storms they expect that 3-6 will reach hurricane status with winds gusting above 79mph. Of the hurricanes they predict 1 - 3 will be a category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane with winds over 111mph.
Why They’re Expecting Fewer Hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2026
El Niño is a big factor driving the predictions for a quieter 2026 hurricane season. Despite expected warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures that would normally increase the chance of hurricanes during the season, the impact of a stronger El Niño is to suppress the hurricanes.
There is precedent for strong El Nino conditions not supressing hurricanes, as an article in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society called “The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season despite Strong El Niño Conditions” details. But it’s unusual, and as this 2024 article by Klotzbach et al, states the string vertical winds that El Nino creates tend to act as a protective mechanism by tearing the tops off developing tropical storms. This stops them from being able to organise and strengthen into hurricanes.
The conditions in the Atlantic when El Nino is strong mean that fewer hurricanes will make landfall on the American coast. Historical climatological analysis by Bove from 1998, shows that during an El Niño year, the probability of two or more hurricanes making landfall in the United States is roughly 28%, which is substantially lower than the 48% probability observed during neutral climate years.
Florida Travel: Disney World’s Hurricane Advantage
Walt Disney World is situated in Central Florida, approximately 60 miles inland from the Atlantic Ocean and 70 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. Because hurricanes draw their power from warm ocean waters, they rapidly lose strength once they move over land. By the time a coastal storm reaches the Orlando area, it is typically downgraded to a tropical storm or a severe rain event, rather than maintaining major hurricane status.
Walt Disney World is built to incredibly strict local building codes designed to withstand extreme wind loads, making the resort one of the safest places in the state to ride out severe weather. Disney World is considered one of the best places to be when a hurricane strikes.
The forecast this year offers some peace of mind that there is likely to be extreme hurricane related weather disruption for UK holidaymakers visiting Orlando.
The NOAA prediction for a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season provides excellent news for British holidaymakers looking forward to a bit of Disney magic. While the reduced risk is comforting, savvy travellers should always pack standard waterproofs for Florida's daily afternoon downpours and ensure their travel insurance is fully up to date.